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A card down 15% or more over 30 days signals a buying window

In cEDH, hands down the best first turn play you can have is Mystic RemoraMystic Remora

The combination of useful upfront from the five life it gives you and the ability to generate advantage over time is actually kind of a nice package, particularly if you can play a single copy (whether maindeck or sideboard) to tutor up with Priest of the Wakening Sun or look for with Commune with Dinosaurs

Even if he is a powerful card, this will keep their price in check going forward

Lukas has a good holistic eye and always asked questions that made me think through why I intuitively wanted to do something